Markets report: Bitcoin hits $13,450 highs as analyst says implied price is now $40,000

Bitcoin showed continued strength above $13,000 on October 27 as concerns that a correction was due were met with fresh gains.

Data from price trackers including CoinMarketCap showed BTC/USD add to its upward trajectory during trading on Tuesday, climbing to $13,455.

The past 24 hours had seen ranging behavior nearer to $13,000, which nonetheless remained as broad support for a sixth consecutive day.

Analysts had begun to call time on the bullish progress. In a tweet on Tuesday just prior to the $13,300 run, popular trader Michaël van de Poppe argued that a slight comedown would provide the market with a “super healthy” counterpoint.

“At resistances, people become overly bullish. At supports, people become overly bearish. Right now, $BTC is in the likelihood of hitting a resistance or a temporary top short term,” he wrote. 

“A retrace towards $11,600 is super healthy to have and good for the markets. Be realistic.”

On-chain analyst Cole Garner thought likewise, eyeing liquidity behavior among traders for hints of a retracement to around $11,300 which could occur in just a single daily candle. 

Such an event would shave approximately 17% off BTC/USD versus Tuesday’s highs.

Tuesday meanwhile saw news from Singapore bank DBS, which announced that it would launch a cryptocurrency exchange and custody services. 

According to a cached web page from the bank, which appeared briefly before being taken down, the project, dubbed DBS Digital Exchange, is fully regulated by Singapore’s de facto central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

All eyes on Bitcoin macro correlation

Bitcoin has nonetheless already surpassed the expectations of many, holding $13,000 without an immediate rejection and providing a stark contrast to its first trips to $12,000 several months ago. 

As Modern Consensus reported, an essential level on weekly timeframes had been $11,900, which Bitcoin failed to crack after retreating from its $20,000 all-time highs in late 2017. 

Looking ahead, this month could yet produce another pivotal moment, this time for the monthly chart. If Bitcoin ends October at $13,873 or higher, it will form its highest-ever monthly close.

At over three months, BTC/USD has already stayed above $10,000 for the longest time in its history. 

For quant analyst PlanB, a focal point now formed around whether Bitcoin would abandon its correlation with the S&P 500 for good. 

Based on his calculations, updated throughout this year, Bitcoin should in fact cost $40,000 based on its relationship to the stocks index. As recently as June, the figure was just $18,000.

Tempering the outcome would be coronavirus responses from central banks, PlanB explained.

“Of course the main driver of S&P500 and BTC going up is quantitative easing (QE), central bank money printing,” he explained in a follow-up tweet. 

“S&P-BTC chart seems to shows that sensitivity of S&P and BTC to QE is proportional / constant. In the same time that S&P did $1K->$3K (3x), BTC did $1->$10K (10,000x).”