markets report bitcoin price

Markets Report: Grayscale ‘panic selling’ may mean BTC bottom is in, says analyst

A return to below $50,000 for Bitcoin comes as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust exhibits a historically accurate sign that the market has bottomed

Bitcoin came full circle on March 4 after a trip to over $52,000 triggered a swift sell-off and loss of $50,000 support. 

Data from price trackers including CoinMarketCap and Tradingview showed a day of regression for BTC/USD, which dropped 7% in 24 hours to cancel out the previous day’s gains.

BTC bulls need to hold $49,000

At press time, $49,000 formed a focus, with little sign that $50,000 would flip to sturdier support on lower timeframes.

That level is crucial, popular trader Michaël van de Poppe said, with the threat of a deeper fall ever present should it give way.

“Bitcoin still follows the plan,” he summarized on Twitter on Thursday. 

“The area at $49K has to hold to prevent further corrections. If that is lost, I’m looking at [the] $45.5K area. Holding $49K and another test of $52K is likely to happen in which a breaker towards $55K is on the tables.”

Bitcoin’s rejected breakout attempt. (Photo: Tradingview)

With little in the way of direction prior to the Wall Street open, Bitcoin talk focused less on price and more on indicators for hints of a possible bull run continuation.

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, highlighted the recent negative premium on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) as a potential launchpad for price. When GBTC sells at a discount, he noted, it often represents a local bottom.

“Grayscale #Bitcoin Trust Discount May Signal March to $100,000,” he tweeted. 

“…Bitcoin’s end of February price disparities on U.S. regulated exchanges portend a firming price foundation, if history is a guide, and are evidence of just how nascent the crypto is.”

The GBTC premium has a habit of signalling local price bottoms. (Photo: Mike McGlone/ Twitter)

As Modern Consensus reported, institutions have continued to buy in over the past week at price levels just below $50,000. In a sign that the mainstream establishment believes that the practice will continue, Deloitte published the first in a multi-installment guide for companies considering following in the footsteps of MicroStrategy, Square and others.

“There is no playbook or foolproof approach for these kinds of bold moves,” an excerpt of the conspicuously non-judgemental guide, being published in the Wall Street Journal, reads. 

“There is only painstaking effort, disciplined analysis, fresh thinking and rethinking, dedicated collaboration across competencies, and, above all, rigorous execution.”

Altcoins still “heating up”

Meanwhile, altcoins were also feeling the pressure as Bitcoin wobbled, with fast mover Cardano noticeably reversing its bullish trajectory.

While still up 8% this week, ADA/USD fell by 8.7% on the day, making it the weakest performer of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap. Cardano nonetheless remains the second-largest altcoin behind Ethereum.

“Altcoins are still heating up for a big altcoin summer but the market in general has to have a corrective period,” van de Poppe stressed in his latest YouTube update

Previously, he had noted that March tends to be historically a month for sideways or corrective movements for cryptocurrency, activating a further retest of $40,000 support for Bitcoin in the coming weeks.

Updated March 4, 2021 to correct author.

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Anthony Bevan is a journalist focusing on disruptive finance and cryptocurrency, along with the changing face of the market as Bitcoin gains mainstream adoption. Journalists covering cryptocurrency for Modern Consensus May hold positions in some of the currencies they write about.